A divisive election highlights the fragility of Brazilian democracy
With two polarizing candidates facing a run off on Oct 30, Brazil’s elections are more heated than ever, and the stakes have never been higher.
By Gianna Formica
ON THE SECOND OF OCTOBER, Brazilians casted their votes in the first round of the 2022 presidential election. The front runners were Luis Ignacio da Silva (known as Lula), who was president of the country from 2003 to 2010, and Jair Bolsonaro, the incumbent. Lula received 48.4 percent of the vote, and Bolsonaro received 43.2 percent of the vote in the initial round, resulting in a tighter race than some anticipated. Since neither candidate received 50 percent of the vote, the election will be decided in a run-off to be held on October 30th.
The electoral battle between these two controversial figures has left voters more divided than ever about the country’s future; what follows is a short backgrounder on just what is at stake.
Who are the candidates?
From 2003 to 2010, Lula, the leader of the leftist Workers Party (PT), served as president of Brazil. At the time, he was considered a popular statesman, securing the 2014 FIFA World Cup and 2016 Rio Olympics, promoting the industrial economy and reducing deforestation in the Amazon. All were signs that Brazil’s status on the world stage was increasing. Lula’s popularity diminished, however, when he faced a corruption scandal, dubbed Operation Car Wash, and was sentenced to 12 years in prison. Lula has referred to this scandal as nothing more than a political witch hunt. Nonetheless, his conviction gave the Bolsonaro campaign all the ammunition it needed in 2018.
With corruption looming at the surface of the PT, Bolsonaro, then a member of the far-right PSL party, harnessed this scandal when he ran for president in 2018, telling voters he would be tougher on corruption, essentially promising to “drain the swamp.” This promise, along with other elements of his platform, led to his victory in the 2018 presidential election. Since then, he has been criticized for his response to the COVID-19 pandemic, his far-right populist sentiments (he is often compared to former U.S. President Donald Trump) and increased deforestation in the Amazon. On the other hand, his supporters praise him for his defense of freedom of speech, his religious faith and his anti-communist views, promising to not be the next Venezuela. “(Some) Brazilians see him as a person who will protect the country and fight for growth economically and morally,” said Brazilian voter Natalia Chaves. “Meanwhile the youth and marginalized communities see Bolsonaro as racist, homophobic and anti feminist. He can be hateful and aggressive. He’s the kind of guy who shoots first and asks questions later.”
Meanwhile, Lula’s conviction was eventually annulled, allowing him to run for office again in 2022. Despite his corruption scandals, he quickly became seen as the frontrunner against Bolsonaro (who is now running with the Liberal Party) because of his stance on human rights, tax reform and environmental legislation in the midst of growing concerns over climate change and worldwide inflation. However, many Brazilians are still haunted by remnants of his corrupt past. “My whole family, parents, aunts, uncles and grandparents were around when the PT was elected so I feel they are traumatized. Even my family that is left-leaning in the US likes Bolsonaro,” said Chaves. Others fear that Lula leans towards communism. “I tend to lean left in my political views, but stay open to hearing both sides always. I don’t like Bolsonaro and strongly disagree with his policies on the environment, [but] it's a no brainer for me that my vote would be for him when the other option is a near communist, Lula,” said Brazilian voter Fernando Da Costa.
What is at stake?
For Brazilians, there are many issues at stake, but repairing the economy is the utmost priority. Economic devastation has greatly affected Brazil, especially in the wake of the pandemic. Wealth disparity and inequality are huge concerns in Brazil, with almost 80 percent of wealth concentrated in the top 10 percent of earners. Concerns over climate change and the fate of rights for members of the community LGBTQ+ are also at stake for young Brazilian voters, with Lula promising to crack down on deforestation and to protect human rights.
Another key aspect at stake in this election is the relationship between the United States and Brazil. Many have argued that both nations mirror one another in more ways than one, with both grappling with inflation, the social and economic fallout of the pandemic, and the rise of populism. If Bolsonaro wins, some American politicians worry that the post-World War II multilateral democratic order could suffer. More so, Bolsonaro’s possible victory could hurt the Biden administration’s interests in tackling climate change as the Brazilian president has decreased funding directed towards protecting the Amazon.
Possible Aftermath
There are concerns that there will be violence regardless which candidate wins in the run off. If Lula is victorious, some Bolsonaro supporters have indicated that they will protest peacefully, while others have threatened bloodshed. On the contrary, Lula supporters have already been accused of beating up Bolsonaro supporters at rallies. While both candidates could not be more different, their supporters’ tactics seem eerily similar, both possibly resulting in violence.
Furthermore, President Bolsonaro himself has threatened to refuse to recognize the outcome of the election if it is not in his favour. According to Human Rights Watch, Bolsonaro has already threatened the Brazilian Supreme Court over unsubstantiated electoral fraud claims. He has compared Brazil’s supposed electoral manipulation to the United States’ 2020 presidential election, resembling Donald Trump’s talking points.
Depending on the results of the runoff, Brazil will go in one of two entirely different directions. Will the country return the presidency to Lula, a social reformer with a corrupt past? Or will it solidify support for Bolsonaro, the far-right religious populist? Whoever wins, it is evident that this young democracy is more polarized than ever.
Gianna Formica is an MPP candidate at the Max Bell School of Public Policy and Chief Editor of The Bell. Her interests include global affairs and political communications.
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