All Roads Lead to Red: Why Republicans Have a Grasp Over Florida
The Republicans’ grip over Florida is only growing, and here’s what Democrats can do about it in the long term.
By Gianna Formica
WITH REPUBLICANS WINNING BY A LANDSLIDE in the Florida midterm elections, the state’s red wave has been a recurring topic of discussion in the political sphere. On Tuesday night, Governor DeSantis won by a nearly 20 percent margin against the Democratic challenger Charlie Crist in the Florida Governor race. Republican Senator Marco Rubio beat Val Demmings by a 16 percent margin, despite having raised less campaign funds than his Democratic opponent.
What was once known as a purple swing state is increasingly becoming more clearly red. Just last year, the Republican Party gained a 43,000-voter registration advantage over the Democratic Party. Democrats should be concerned, especially given that Florida is on track to become the third most populous state in the country.
However, Florida was not always staunchly red. In both the presidential elections of 2008 and 2012, President Barack Obama won against his Republican opponents. During this time, Democratic voters outnumbered Republican voters in the state by nearly 700,000.
This poses a few questions: How did a state that once had a significant Democratic voter margin over Republican voters now turn in the opposite direction? How did a state that voted for Obama—not once, but twice—become dominated by Republican voters?
As with most political issues, there are multiple factors that explain the red wave.
To begin with, the Democratic Party has been grossly disorganized in the state for the past decade, with dwindling voter registration and fundraising numbers. In contrast Governor Ron DeSantis shattered fundraising records, gaining nearly a $200 million governor campaign. In a way, Florida represents a national trend towards Republicans across the country. However, in order to understand why Florida and many other states are turning red it is important to look beyond the numbers.
Pandemic Response
While Democrats around the country faltered back and forth on pandemic policies, Florida Governor DeSantis was clear on where he stood from the beginning. Since April 2020, he has constantly expressed his desire to keep schools, businesses and the tourism industry open.
Governor DeSantis was criticized for his open-door policy during the first two years of the pandemic, and was even hailed as “the model of what not to do” during a pandemic.
Yet despite the criticism, his stance has seemed to work in his favour. Since 2020, DeSantis’ approval numbers have only increased. Whether it’s because of purposeful memory loss of a traumatic two years or Floridians feeling the secondary effects of the pandemic – such as test scores in elementary schools at an all-time low, or simply inflation – it seems that more and more people want to move on from the pandemic. Additionally, because of his open-door policy, Florida saw record-shattering tourism numbers in 2021 and 2022 that surpassed pre-pandemic levels, benefiting businesses in the state and signaling that people all over the country wanted a sense of normalcy.
Given Florida's reliance on tourism for economic growth, it’s surprising that Democrats were not persistent on opening businesses sooner. Furthermore, experts had warned for months that school closures would cause developmental delays, with parents voicing their concerns, and yet Democrats did nothing to allay their fears. Meanwhile, DeSantis released a campaign video in which a young child thanks the governor for allowing him to attend school, demonstrating to parents that he has always been the pro-school candidate. In hindsight, Democrats could have benefited from adapting to the shifting trends on COVID-19 and taking a firm stance on opening businesses and schools sooner rather than later. Put it simply, DeSantis acted boldly and took a firm stance that Democrats didn’t.
Pushing Against “Political Correctness”
As mentioned, Florida was a long-time “purple” swing state with a mix of left-leaning, moderate, and right-leaning voters. In the past decade, Democrats have struggled to relate with moderates. This is partially because Democrats have a habit of focusing attention on “political correctness” issues which deter moderate voters, who are plentiful in Florida and are the key to winning a majority. That is not to say that Democrats should not condemn bigotry or hatred when they see it; rather, they should focus less on the niche elements of cancel culture, and more on everyday struggles for the average Floridian.
Focusing on the Economy and Inflation
Another related problem Democrats have is focusing on issues that are not on the minds of the majority of voters. While Democrats have relied on the overturning of Roe vs. Wade and promised to protect abortion rights to gain traction in the midterms, Republicans have consistently focused on inflation and economic struggles on the campaign trail.
Although overturning Roe vs. Wade does weigh on many voters, inflation and the economy – among other issues such as education and immigration – outweighs abortion by a long shot. It’s a hard truth for many on the left to hear, but for the average voter in Florida, rising grocery prices is politically more pertinent than abortion rights. Democrats ought to rely less on their ability to protect social rights, and instead put more emphasis on the day-to-day struggles of the working class.
Capitalizing on Latino Voters’ Fears
One skill that Florida Republicans have mastered is the craft of capitalizing on Latino voters’ fears of communism and socialist policies that failed in Latin America, reminding them that if they vote for Democrats, there’s a chance socialism may return. For Cubans and Venezuelans especially, they do not want to take that chance. That’s why in Miami-Dade County – a county with a large Hispanic population that historically votes Democrat – DeSantis won more than 55 percent of the vote. This has not happened since Jeb Bush ran for governor in 2002. The growing trend of Latinos voting for Republicans cannot be overstated.
To combat this, Democrats need to communicate their policies better and stop expecting to win the Latino vote just because they are pro-immigration. They need to get rid of their expectations, and start from the ground up, growing strong bases in counties with large Latino populations, and acknowledge Latino voters’ legitimate concerns.
Florida Democrats cannot turn back time, but learning from their errors can put them on track to gain momentum in 2024. Instead of blaming right-wing extremism and Trump for their losses, Democrats need to focus on the issues voters actually care about and get to work on the ground.
Gianna Formica is the Chief Editor of The Bell Newsletter. She is a Masters of Public Policy Candidate at the Max Bell School at McGill University. Her interests lie in global affairs and political communication.
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