Is Canada’s arctic policy on thin ice?
Failure to prioritize northern protection leaves Canadians vulnerable to growing threats.
By Anita Dernovici and Colleen Keilty
On November 16th, 2023, the Nordic ambassadors to Canada from Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland visited the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University to share their reflections on the importance of national defence and Arctic security in an increasingly volatile world, including how countries like Canada can impact security on the world stage.
Is Canada ready to heed the call?
If budget allocation provides any indication, the answer is no. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland increased their defence spending to meet NATO’s 2% of GDP contributions and there is a growing call on other member states to follow suit. Recently, the U.S. Ambassador to NATO stated that Canada and other members were expected to do the same.
Last year, Canada fell well short of this target, spending an estimated 1.3% of GDP on defence; this year, the Trudeau government announced spending reductions to the tune of $15.4 billion over five years, including $900 million from the Department of National Defence alone. While stable and predictable defence spending remains a stated goal, the 2023 Fall Economic Statement signalled a further tightening of the belt as the government struggles to manage a slowing economy, address concurrent housing and affordability crises, and deliver on urgent healthcare and climate change commitments.
Nevertheless, Canada cannot afford to let national defence and security fall through the cracks. While conflicts like the Ukraine-Russia war in Europe and the Israel-Palestine war may be far from Canada’s borders, new threats are emerging closer to home.
For the last half century, the Arctic region has been considered a zone of peace and dialogue – but this geopolitical exceptionalism has come to an end. While Canada’s Chief of Defence Staff observes no clear and present threat to Canadian sovereignty, the Arctic is not immune to the spillover effects from renewed great power rivalries between the United States, China, and Russia.
Chief among Arctic security concerns is Russia’s growing military presence in the region. Following the war in Ukraine, Russia has become increasingly aggressive disregarding the rules-based international order and disengaged from the Arctic Council. As a result, Russia’s investments in Arctic infrastructure and military capabilities warrant close monitoring by its Arctic neighbours.
Tensions also continue to rise with China, whose increasing interest in the region has been met with caution. China has enjoyed ‘observer status’ at the Arctic Council since 2013 and has since attempted to “normalize” its presence in the region, labelling itself a “near-Arctic state.” In pursuit of the abundance of oil, gas, and critical mineral resources in the Arctic archipelago, China has financed extraction projects, improved its Arctic marine capacity, and has added a “Polar Silk Road” to the larger Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure and development strategy. With its growing prominence and investments in the region, Canada and its Nordic allies have followed China’s Arctic evolution with growing concern.
Militarization is not the only threat to Canadian Arctic security – the impacts of climate change are increasingly damaging the environment in the Arctic. The Arctic region comprises 40% of Canada’s land mass and 75% of its coastline, while home to less than 1% of the population. The region is warming at four times the global rate, leading to irreversible changes to its unique ecosystem. Permafrost thaw and coastal erosion threaten critical infrastructure, make navigation through the archipelago more unpredictable, and produce compounding safety and security risks to the livelihood and culture of Arctic and Inuit communities. Economic and military risks are further compounded by the growing accessibility to the region, enabling non-Arctic countries to open fisheries, extract resources, conduct scientific research, and allow for international shipping.
Domaine awareness is essential for Canada’s readiness to respond to such threats. Recent assessments of the implementation of Canada’s 2017 defence policy Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE) conducted by the Senate and Office of the Auditor General suggest that the government is again falling well short of its targets. Issues with delayed procurement, limited surveillance capabilities, aging infrastructure, and out-of-date technology persist.
Implementation failures mean that Canada remains heavily reliant on northern and Arctic communities in order to maintain awareness of and control over its sovereign territory. This is exemplified by the reliance on the Canadian Rangers in the north, who are part of the Canadian Army Reserve and comprised predominantly of Indigenous Peoples. They are a hallmark of Canadian sovereignty and security in the North, as the watchful eye and paramilitary presence with responsibilities including surveillance, sovereignty patrols, search and rescue and disaster relief, and training Armed Forces with survival skills.
To adequately support the Canadian Rangers, and the communities they protect, the government must take a more comprehensive approach to national security: one that considers not only the defence of sovereign territories from external threats, but the human security of peoples therein. To this end, the Arctic components of SSE are complementary to Canada’s Arctic and Northern Policy Framework (ANPF), which focuses not only on the safety and security of Inuit and northern peoples, but also their health, prosperity, self-determination and resilience. There is a clear paucity of publicly available results on the implementation of ANPF to date.
Chronic under-spending and under-delivery beg the question of why these failures repeatedly occur. For starters, national security issues have not been top of mind for Canadians. Vincent Rigby – current Slater Family Professor of Practice at the Max Bell School of Public Policy, and former National Security and Intelligence Advisor to Prime Minister Trudeau– reflected that Canadians simply don’t take defence and national security very seriously.
“[Canadians] think that the United States will take care of us,” said Rigby. “The government is quite happy to embrace this approach."
Still, Nordic countries’ investments in security amid growing Russian aggression make it clear that it is possible to elevate public opinion and influence prompt shifts in foreign policy, especially as it relates to the Arctic. Canadians are similarly increasingly on board. Per a recent Ipsos poll, 75% of Canadians believe that the country should increase its defense spending to ensure it can protect Canadian territory and sovereignty, while 71% want increased spending to allow the Canadian Forces to contribute to global peace and stability. Some disconnect remains between Canadians’ hypothetical support for defence spending and their real appetite for public spending on this file – while Canadians believe in northern security, they are paying more attention to the issues that affect their daily lives, like housing and affordability.
Looking ahead, will Canada ever heed the call? The 2023 Fall Economic Statement’s spending projections for the end of the current decade, reflects commitments to implement the SSE and invest in continental defence. It does not guarantee a major increase in spending on security and defence capabilities, nor in critical infrastructure, but signals that these files remain on the current government’s long list of priorities. Still, a track record of under-delivery should spark reasonable concern. If this trajectory continues, Canada will become increasingly vulnerable to the growing number of geopolitical and environmental threats.
This trend could be reversed with more political pressure towards these issues, but to achieve political salience, Canadians need a clearer understanding of how national security and human security in the north are deeply intertwined. Recognizing this connection would boost public appetite and push the government to adopt a more holistic approach to security in the Arctic.
Securing the north is vital for Canada to successfully pursue its interests and values, maintain its sovereignty, and ensure protection of Indigenous rights, environment and strategic economic interests Only when Canada understands the critical role of the Arctic will it finally be able to heed the call and adequately protect the region alongside Indigenous communities and Nordic allies.
Anita comes to Max Bell School of Public Policy with a background in privacy law, providing expert guidance in her previous work experience. As a pioneering female leader within the Federal Government, she is resolute in advancing equity and impartiality within institutional frameworks.
Colleen joins the Max Bell School of Public Policy with over a decade of experience in the public and non-profit sectors. She is particularly interested in how government, private sector, and civil society actors can mobilize to advance social and environmental justice.
