Biden’s victory is far from certain
The biggest threat to the Democrats is coming from within – they need to act fast to avoid another Trump presidency.
By Jibril Hussein and Michael Kynaston
The Democrats have a problem – and it’s Joe Biden. A recent Times/Siena poll has shown Biden to be significantly lagging behind Donald Trump in key swing states. These latest numbers add to long-held concerns around Biden’s electability and whether he is up for a second term. Polling data has elicited calls for him to step aside so that a younger candidate, who may be more likely to beat Trump, can run in his place. Whether Biden steps aside or not, such concerns about his electability prompt the question: what viable path do the Democrats have for preventing the return of Donald Trump to the White House?
The answer depends on who can replace Biden as a candidate for the Democratic Party. One option is running mate and current vice-president Kamala Harris. But this plan is far from foolproof. Harris would need to overcome the perception that the administration — and Biden — is old and tired. As VP, she has low approval ratings, with a recent poll indicating that voters would rather support an unnamed candidate. On the plus side, Harris is a pro-choice advocate, which remains a key voter issue. As the first woman, first Black American, and first South Asian American to be elected as Vice President in the United States, Harris could also leverage her relationships with marginalized communities that have been otherwise pulling their support for the Democrats. Despite the potential gains from this strategy, Harris will still have to cope with the perceived economic failings made by the current administration.
Then there is Gavin Newsom: the young, charismatic, and energetic California Governor who is unafraid to promote Democratic policies in Republican-held states and on conservative media. However, he is a divisive figure even in California politics — the 2021 California recall election was fuelled by anger over his personal behaviour and inaction on homelessness, water rationing, and high taxes. He has also repeatedly stated that he has no interest in running against Biden and that he has great confidence in Biden’s leadership. So, while both Harris and Newsom have been tapped as potential replacements, it appears unlikely that Biden will step aside — as President Lyndon B. Johnson did in 1968 – to allow for a new generation of Democrat candidates.
As we look at the scant alternatives, you could be forgiven for thinking you’ve stepped back in time. Barring any significant intervention, the septuagenarian Trump will likely go up against the Octogenarian Biden again. While Biden prevailed in 2020, the rematch looks ominous for the Democrats: despite his age, Trump has retained the manic energy levels which Democrats fear could serve him well on the campaign trail, contrasting with Biden’s increasingly soft-spoken manner. Such fears have been reinforced by the latest swing-state polling numbers. Biden trails Trump in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all of which voted blue in 2020, but where now Trump leads by upwards of 40%.
Recent polls also suggest voters are increasingly concerned about Biden’s advanced age, and his support amongst core Democrat voting blocks, namely Hispanic and African-American voters, is also waning; levels of support for Trump among the latter group (22%) are unprecedented in modern times for a Republican Presidential candidate in the above swing states. The Democrats have chosen to make economic recovery and growth post COVID-19 as a cornerstone of their campaign, but the term ‘Bidenomics’ is simply not cutting through: swing state voters trust Trump over Biden on the economy by a 22-point margin.
Another factor that could harm Biden’s electoral efforts is Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza. Following the October 7th attacks by Hamas, in which 1,200 Israelis were killed and over 200 taken hostage, over 13,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, including more than 5,000 children, and the number of deaths is increasing daily as the aerial bombardment of the city continues. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has highlighted that Gaza hospitals are unable to function, describing the largest hospital as ‘nearly a cemetery.’ The Biden administration used its veto power at the UN Security Council to oppose ceasefire resolutions, however, such resolutions have since passed after the U.S. abstained. The American response to the scale of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has not gone unnoticed amongst the younger, more progressive Democrat voters that were crucial to Biden’s 2020 success, so the administration’s support for the Israeli military’s actions may harm their November 2024 electoral prospects.
Biden’s saving grace could be Trump’s legal battles, many of which are taking place in swing states. As of November 2023, Trump faces 91 felony charges in four different jurisdictions. To add insult to injury for many supporters, the Trump campaign began diverting 10 percent of donations from his leadership political action committee (PAC) to help fund his legal bills, doling out $16 million (and counting) as of June 2023. The prospects of Trump being charged, jailed, and becoming the Republican nominee are certainly looking more likely as he leads the Republican field.
This unprecedented scenario may hurt his prospects: according to the same poll that put Trump ahead, 6 percent of current Trump supporters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin say they would swing the other way if Trump is convicted and sentenced in his January 6-related trial. With polls being so close, this could ultimately decide the election in Biden’s favour.
Another potential route to victory for Biden lies with one of the Republican Party's biggest vulnerabilities: reproductive rights. Public support for access to abortion has continued to remain consistent, irregardless of the overturning of Roe v Wade in June 2022. Many states have also seen numerous pro-choice wins: abortion rights were added to the Ohio state constitution via a 57-43 vote at the ballot box; Kentucky governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat, was re-elected after a pro-choice campaign; and in Virginia, Democrats overtook the state legislature despite the best efforts of an incumbent Republican Governor who ran a multi-million dollar campaign pledging his support for a 15-week abortion ban. Recent events suggest that if Democrats maintain reproductive rights as a key voting issue in 2024, there may well be enough pro-choice support to make a decisive difference in favour of Biden. This of course assumes that Trump maintains a pro-life stance, which is not guaranteed, as he has spoken previously about it being a vote-losing issue.
Ultimately it is not looking promising for Biden and the Democrats. However, this late in the game with a lack of feasible alternatives, it is highly unlikely that Biden will drop out. Democrats have to hope that their support for reproductive rights can shift the tide in their direction, and that Trump’s ongoing criminal trials result in a decisive blow against his efforts to retake the White House.
Jibril grew up in Winnipeg, Manitoba and graduated from the University of Winnipeg with a B.Sc. in Biochemistry. Before joining the Max Bell School, Jibril worked as a Policy and Regional Advisor to the Minister of Families, Children and Social Development. He also was an advisor to the Minister of Science and Sport. With his background in health and social policy, data analysis, and human rights, Jibril is interested in developing robust public policy solutions that uplift and empower marginalized communities locally and globally. He looks forward to gaining the knowledge, skills, and networks necessary to tackle the world’s most pressing issues through public policy.
Michael is from London, United Kingdom. He has worked as a Participation and Communities manager for Barking and Dagenham council in London, engaging directly with local residents, community partners and elected officials. Michael is passionate about education policy and has good experience of participation and engagement work, but is excited about the variety of the MPP course, and being able to study such topics as global macroeconomics and budgeting and fiscal policy in all of their complexity.