Costs of delayed aid: Ukrainian lives

Ukrainians struggle for sustained and continuous aid. Would you put a price on freedom?

Photo Credit: [Belinda Jiao/Reuters] 

By Anita Dernovici and Teodora Durca  

This article is accompanied by the second edition of the Bellwether Podcast, where Anita Dernovici and Teodora Durca interview Dr. Jennifer Welsh about the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. You can listen to the podcast here.

An invasion. Censorship. Suspicious deaths. This is what the Russian regime has looked like under Putin – is the Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach a threat to Ukraine’s long-term resilience?

On February 24, the war in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine entered its third year. While the fighting has raged on, international support has slowly dwindled in the invaded sovereign country. Following the suspicious circumstances surrounding the death of imprisoned Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist, Alexei Navalny, there is some hope for new action against Russia, which could hinder the aggressor’s ability to continue waging war. But will it suffice? 

To the surprise of some, Ukraine successfully withstood Russia’s initial full-scale assault in February 2022. Following the counteroffensive last summer, Ukraine reclaimed a considerable portion of its territory in the north-east. This past year, we witnessed large battles unfolding in Bakhmut, Mariupol, Kherson, Kharkiv, the latter of which was effectively regained by Ukraine.   Despite these gains, the current situation appears to have reached a stand-still.  

Most recently, Russian troops have been advancing along the front line on the ground, notably securing control of Avdiivka. Military experts are stating that it is partly because Ukrainian forces have struggled with ammunition shortages which forced them to pull back a few days ago.  

The situation appears to be more favourable in the Black Sea than inland, with Ukrainian forces utilizing new missiles and sea drones to destroy Russia’s warships. Ukraine also restored exports of grains – which had originally disrupted  global supply chains and increased the price of food, fuel and other commodities. 

Presently, morale on the front line is significantly lower than in 2022. The Ukrainian army faces consistent ammunition shortages, particularly due to the delayed arrival of 50 per cent of the weapons promised by the West. Additionally, recruitment issues persist and general exhaustion from the war are exacerbating the situation. 

The situation does not seem to improve on the humanitarian front. According to the UNHCR, since the start of the full-scale invasion, more than 6.5 million refugees fled from Ukraine; more than 5 million people are estimated to be displaced inside Ukraine – particularly vulnerable groups including the elderly and people with disabilities who may be unable to flee from high-risk areas.  

With continuous missile and rocket attacks causing widespread casualties, the destruction of homes, and severely damaged energy infrastructures, many Ukrainians live in shelled homes without reliable access to water and electricity. As the war continues, humanitarian needs are multiplying with UNHCR estimating that 14.6 million people in Ukraine will need humanitarian assistance in 2024. 

The international community should be paying more attention – this war is not only threatening the fabric of our rules-based order, but also democracy itself. Under the Charter of the United Nations, annexation and territorial conquest are strictly forbidden. This norm has been generally followed by the international community since the Second World War and was also laid out explicitly in 1967 in the Security Council’s Resolution 242.  

Does this norm still stand if Russia – one of the Security Council’s permanent members with veto powers – fails to recognize it? If the body that the world relies on as a watchdog for flagrant violations of international law continues to be eroded, other territories will also be at risk of invasion. Strained ties between China and Taiwan or Venezuela and Guyanaare early signs of the broader implications of the war in Ukraine for the world as we know it. 

Looking ahead, Kyiv’s allies must keep in mind their promises of “as long as it takes”. Declaring “we stand with Ukraine” must be followed by continued actions that will promote victory for Ukraine and for democracies across the world. 

Following Alexei Navalny’s death, the United States launched 500 new sanctions against Russian and foreign firms that supply the Kremlin’s military and industrial production. The European Union also announced that sanctions will be imposed on foreign firms that have exported goods to Russia that could be used for its war in Ukraine.  

While this may slow the Kremlin down, precedent has shown us that it is unlikely to be enough to end the war, even though the Russian army is currently in no position to meet its objectives. Despite the historic broad sanctions regime against Russia, Russia’s economy grew by 3 per cent, with $99 billion earned from oil and gas, last year. 

At the same time, Republican senators in the United States have been instrumental in blocking a $61 billion aid package to Ukraine, which the country needs to continue defending itself against an aggressive neighbouring state.  

 “Vladimir Putin is an evil war criminal,” Republican Senator Ron Johnson said after he and the majority of Republican senators voted against the aid package. He added: “Vladimir Putin will not lose this war.”  Acceptance of Russian imperialist expansionism has continued to grow since former President Trump’s stance on Russian policies, but their persistence on blocking aid was an unexpected turn of events. 

Considering the potential decrease in US aid should the Republican Party win the next election,  the EU must prepare to reassess its current strategy. This revision should prioritize ammunition production and increased aid, especially from countries that have been notably less involved, such as France. While talks around leveraging sanctioned Russian funds have been a prominent discussion amongst allies, the focus should be on imminent aid, because while the world takes its time, Ukrainians are paying for freedom with their lives on a daily basis.  

With a seemingly interminable war, the recent death of Alexei Navalny is another reminder that Russia’s suppressive and aggressive behavior at home can also be found on the international stage. As commonly understood, confronting a bully requires a firm approach: recognizing that authoritarian regimes only yield to strength, then, our response should go beyond merely “standing with Ukraine.” We must forge a more united and strong front.  

A victory for Ukraine is one for freedom and for democracy. That must be the only option. Слава Україні (Slava Ukraini)!