Do Not Pass GO

GO Transit Expansion was doomed by a lack of ambition from the public and private sectors that extends well beyond the Greater Toronto Area.

GO Trains. Image from BlogTO.

By Jacob Kates Rose

We all know the old Greek proverb that says “society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they will never sit.” And we can all understand that. if the Greeks have it right, then the inverse must be true as well: Society degrades when old men choose not to plant trees if they won’t enjoy the shade.

That may well describe the people who were overseeing Ontario’s $16.2B plan to transform the Toronto area’s regional rain system into a world class interurban network. Metrolinx, the provincial transit agency, must not understand the proverb’s reversal because they recently cancelled a contract with Deutsche Bahn, Germany’s national railway company, that would have transformed Ontario’s 1980s-era commuter rail system.

Chief among the disagreements between Metrolinx and Deutsche Bahn was the timeline for new projects. A Metrolinx executive even went as far as to say that: “There is no point in building infrastructure we may or may not need for 30 years’ time.” Even if long-term planning is potentially wasteful, regional transit in this fast-growing region seems like a no-brainer.

For readers outside of Toronto, let me explain: Ontario operates a regional commuter rail and bus system around the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) called GO Transit. It stands for Government of Ontario, which provides all Ontario fathers with a road trip fun fact. About 300,000 Ontarians use GO to get around every weekday. It is very good by North American standards, but North American public transit standards are not very high. As Toronto’s suburbs grow, GO will attract more riders. Between now and 2050, the GTA’s population will grow by 50 per cent, but GO anticipates ridership growth of more than 300 per cent.

The only problem? That projection was part of the ambitious GO Expansion plans that were just shelved. In 2018, the leadership of GO Transit did something rare for Canadian public agencies: They made a visionary business case for their service and won the support of the government to pursue expansion. In 2022, they partnered with a consortium led by Germany’s national railway operator, Deutsche Bahn, to lead the transformation. The consortium would design, build, maintain and operate the enhanced network for 25 years.

Initial announcements were ambitious. Service would run all day, both ways, from downtown Toronto out to the suburbs. Trains would come every 3-8 minutes during rush hour. New stations would be constructed. Electric trains that accelerate and run faster would shrink the size of Canada’s largest region.

And then, last month, Metrolinx fired Deutsche Bahn. As with most Public-Private- Partnerships, this is where the story gets hazy. Metrolinx blames the consortium. The consortium declines to comment. Employees comment anonymously. As journalists like Reece Martin, Jack Hauen and Andy Takagi are finding, it seems like the simplest and more accurate explanation is that Metrolinx’s leadership was unable to articulate a vision for the project, and unwilling to give Deutsche Bahn the authority to articulate one themselves.

Metrolinx’s leadership resisted implementing the changes necessary to fulfill their own business case, and changed the scope and goals of the project so often that they wasted millions of taxpayer dollars and years of progress. Now, Metrolinx is trying to “descope” the expansion and deliver only a “minimal viable product.”

“Minimal Viable Product” would be a good band name for the executives in charge of Canadian infrastructure expansion. Vancouver’s subway expansion won’t reach UBC, and so North America’s busiest bus line will stay in place. Toronto’s Eglinton Crosstown LRT will open four years late and significantly over budget, and the Metrolinx property expropriation team keeps lowballing people and then losing millions in court. It’s too early to say if the Montreal Blue Line extension will suffer the same fate.

All hope is not lost for improving regional transit in Canada’s largest city — but Torontonians may never know what potential was lost in the transition to a “minimum viable product.” There is a lot of talk of the public service in Ottawa being shaken up by Prime Minister Mark Carney, following the appointment of Michael Sabia as Clerk of the Privy Council. Maybe they can send some of that energy to Metrolinx head office and get these projects rolling.

Jacob Kates Rose is a Toronto-raised student who has come to the Max Bell School to learn the skills to think about policy, society and government in an interdisciplinary, evidence driven manner. He has previous experience working at Toronto's City Hall, as well as in various capacities in community arts organizations. Jacob is passionate about immigration and multiculturalism, housing and land use policy, and the intersection between law, policy, government and society.