How the International Community is Failing Ethiopia

Shweta Menon is a graduate student at the Max Bell School of Public Policy and is an Editor at The Bell. Prior to joining the Max Bell School, she has worked as a Research Associate with a Member of Parliament in India. She has also worked as a journalist where she covered the laws and policies of India. She is interested in the intersection of AI and gender-neutral laws.

Write us at newsletterthebell@gmail.com.

People who flee from Ethiopia, line up near a refugee camp at the Sudanese side of the Sudan-Ethiopia border. (Baz Ratner/Reuters)

November, 4, 2020 WILL BE REMEMBERED AS A BLACK DAY IN THE HISTORY. OF ETHIOPIA. It is the day Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent troops into the northern region of Tigray, accusing the governing party, Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), of mounting attacks against military bases in the area. What ensued led to the deaths of thousands of civilians, pushed around 400,000 people into famine, and forced millions of people to flee the country. From gender-based sexual violence to ethnic cleansing, the citizens of Ethiopia are suffering from a series of human rights violations. To get to the on-ground reality of the conflict, Shweta Menon interviewed Sarah Hunter, a Communications and Digital Media Officer at the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, where she conducts research and advocacy of atrocity risks in the Horn of Africa (mainly Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia). Sarah holds an MA in Diplomacy and International Relations from Seton Hall University, where she concentrated on Human Rights Law and the Horn of Africa. 

1) From a statement in 2019 when PM Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize (“war is the epitome of failure for all involved”) to his recent statement at the military headquarters (“we will bury this enemy with our blood and bones and make the glory of Ethiopia high again") there has been a dramatic shift in his idea of resolution of a conflict. Lecturer Awol All, in an interview with CBC, said that he regrets nominating PM Abiy Ahmed for the Nobel Peace prize in 2018. What would you say about this transition and the Ethiopian government’s stance on ending the conflict? 

I don’t think he has shifted in his perspective, but I do believe he has failed himself in this (war) endeavour even though he denied this for months. For the longest time, PM Abiy and his government didn’t acknowledge that this was indeed a conflict, but rather an internal “law enforcement” matter. PM Abiy’s supporters believe that if he is to step aside and give concessions then Ethiopia will break apart. This is why the government has been so extreme: almost completely cutting Tigray from aid, the communication blackout etc. The extremity to which they have gone shows that they believe if what has happened in Tigray gets out or is replicated in other areas, then the whole country may well fall apart.  I think he views this conflict as one for the very survival of the country and despite what he has said in the past and his Nobel Peace Prize, this war is worth it to him.  

2) Ethiopian PM Press Secretary Billene Seyoum has been critical of the media coverage of the conflict. According to Seyoum, the international media has been presenting a narrative that is making the world think that the Ethiopian government and its actions are at the heart of this conflict. Do you believe that to be true? If not, then why? 

All reporting has bias and because of this they've been extremely critical of the media coverage. The Ethiopian government has launched a very aggressive counter-narrative on social media and elsewhere in what they say is “western interference” and false news from international news. I would say some of the criticism may be warranted on a smaller scale as discussing Ethiopian politics and history is not an easy feat and over-simplification and error does happen quite frequently. If you don’t look back before 4 November 2020 you’re missing a ton of context here including years of rising tensions between PM Abiy and the TPLF party, and the decades of TPLF rule where human rights abuses occurred. But the reality is there are atrocious crimes happening on the ground. There have been mass killings, widespread sexual and gender-based violence, blockades of humanitarian aid, and more. The Ethiopian government denied all of this for months and has only recently conceded that these crimes have happened. When these things have clearly been ongoing and the government has aggressively denied and covered that up, it delegitimizes their perspective.  

3) The importance of humanitarian aid in conflict-torn areas remains the last resort for civilians to survive the conflict but the prevention of aid reaching the civilians poses a challenge to their survival. According to several media reports, a similar chain of events has been observed where humanitarian aid is not reaching intended beneficiaries due to the Ethiopian government creating administrative hurdles. Is that the reality on the ground? Where do the UN’s actions come in this scenario? What could be done for aid to reach the civilians?  

The situation for humanitarian aid on the ground is completely catastrophic at this point. And that's not just in Tigray but also in the conflict areas in Amhara as well. Hundreds of thousands of people in Tigray and elsewhere are in famine conditions as of June 2021 and we have had no updates on that situation since. Almost no organizations have access to fuel to go out and see how bad it is in these places. So those numbers have to be, at this point, vastly underestimated. There has been a blatant obstruction by the Ethiopian government on aid in Tigray. Not only are they obstructing aid, but they're also obstructing medical supplies, fuel and more. Aid workers can't even bring their vitamins with them into the region. There's no food, there's no fuel and it is incredibly hard because even if you get food in, how can you distribute it without fuel? How can you pay your medical staff without cash? How can you keep medicine cool without electricity?. So, these are other aspects that I don't think are focused on enough which are in themselves a human rights violation. This just makes it all the more apparent that the government believes that the population of Tigray are deserving of collective punishment.  

As far as the UN's actions come in, they're operating in a really difficult position. The government views them as biased to the TPLF at this point and has hindered their operations and has expelled and arrested UN staff and contractors. So, at this point, you somehow have to bypass the government to get substantial aid in or be held hostage by it. Airdrops would be useful in this scenario as they can reach hard to reach areas and would bypass the issue of lack of fuel to transport aid around the region. But it's still politically difficult to bypass the Ethiopian government, who have made it clear they still have air presence there.  

I think the Security Council should be much more outspoken on this than it has been. The Security Council has also been held hostage by both permanent and elected member on this crisis,  only agreeing to two press statements in over a year of war, but that's just the political context that we're living in. If there was a kind of a direct land route, there could be some options for cross-border aid, which again is very political, and states don't want to do that, because of how it played out in Syria. This would really only be an option if the Tigrayan forces were able to retake Western Tigray and have access to Sudan. Even then, given the current relationship between both countries, I am not sure Sudan would agree to it as they would be seen as supporting a “terrorist organization” by the Ethiopians. 

4) The Biden administration sanctioned Eritrea's military and its sole political party People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) for their involvement in the ongoing crisis. The sanctions do not, however, target TPLF or the Ethiopian government who are directly involved in the conflict. What possible intervention could we hope for from the US to end the crisis? Could you also comment on the impact of this conflict on the foreign relation between the US and Ethiopia? 

It's been very interesting to observe the US, post-Trump, kind of reassert itself in the international realm. The reason that they've targeted Eritrea first is that it is easier for the US politically. Eritrea is often called the “North Korea” of Africa. In my opinion these sanctions are a warning to Ethiopia. The US is showing them what could happen if the conflict and human rights abuses do not end. The Executive Order that was signed before the Eritrea sanction came in place could very well be used to sanction Ethiopia in the coming weeks. The US has also mentioned on multiple occasions that they're looking into the fact that what's happened in Tigray could be genocide and/or ethnic cleansing.  

The US is Ethiopia’s biggest bilateral aid donor. The US has already withheld some government assistance, but I don’t think that they're going to be withholding humanitarian aid anytime soon given the current level of need. Ethiopia has been one of the US’s closest allies on the African continent. And this has been severely damaged with supporters of both “sides.” The Tigrayans wanted robust intervention to save civilians that never came. So, they feel betrayed. On the other side is the Ethiopian government, which is at odds with the US’ outspokenness, routinely calling on the US to stop meddling in its affairs and spreading lies and falsehoods and propping up this narrative of the West against Ethiopia. So, I think that when this conflict resolves it will be interesting to see what happens with the relationship with the US. But right now, it's extremely frayed.  

5) Sexual and gender-based violence has been an issue in Ethiopia and it has further been exacerbated due to the conflict. What could we expect from the Ethiopian government and the international community to tackle this epidemic of gender-based violence? 

I think any response has to be international, whether regional or at an international level. There needs to be both accountability for the many victims of sexual and gender-based violence. But there also needs to be medical support and financial and other support for women and families who have been impacted. 

As for what we can expect from the Ethiopian government, It is hard to say. They have put on trial some members of the armed forces for rapes but it has been on a small scale. The former Women's Minister, Ms. Filsan Abdullahi, vowed to look into gender-based violence in Tigray. She resigned from her position in September 2021 and has since been pretty outspoken against the government. Her family has been targeted for arrest. Historically when you talk about the Ethiopian government holding itself accountable, there's been a lack of follow-through with some promises when it comes to justice for gender and ethnicity-based violence. So, I don't have much hope in the domestic justice mechanisms for specifically the situation in Tigray, because you're asking the government to put itself on trial for what is done to take care of what they view as “terrorism.” I just don’t see it being impartial.  

On the international level, my organization and other NGOs are advocating for the creation of a UN Human Rights Council-mandated investigative mechanism to investigate what's happened there. I’d also like to see the creation of some type of regionally- led UN assisted tribunal for accountability, trying these crimes as mass atrocity crimes. These are not just individual cases of rape but systemic and widespread  commission of rape and sexual violence as a weapon of war against the population of Tigray.  

What can we do on a local level to prevent rape and gender-based violence more generally? I am not an expert on this but I think one major way to end these crimes is through accountability as a deterrent. There needs to be an outreach to local communities in making sure everybody knows these crimes are against the law and what the punishment is for them. This punishment needs to be consistently followed through on and widely seen. There also must be work on changing the perspectives of communities towards victims of rape. They should no longer be suffering in silence or be embarrassed or afraid of what will happen to them if they speak up against their abusers. We need to remove the stigma, which is a huge problem hindering women from coming forward in Tigray.  

6) Human rights organizations claim that the police authorities have been profiling Tigrayans ethnically and not based on a connection with the TPLF. Do you know about the ground reality of this claim? Do we have any information on the institutional facilities that are being used to detain these people? 

The OHCHR released a statement that at least 1,000 Tigrayans have been targeted  and arrested based on their ethnicity. And as I mentioned, everybody that's Tigrayan is considered to be supporting the TPLF at this point, which is a crime now. If they weren’t, why would these vigilante patrols be looking at their ID cards? Why would you be wanting people to register the ethnicity of their tenants if you weren't just targeting Tigrayans? A lot of my colleagues have told me that the military or policemen are stationed at the end of the streets and people are basically on house arrest because they are afraid to leave their homes. It's a very scary situation. Ethiopia has a long history of arresting political opponents and keeping them in prison for exorbitant amounts of time, and this seems to continue that pattern. As far as the facilities, I don't have anything verified to share but we've heard people say there are mass detention facilities that are overcrowded and hidden.  

7) What looks like a viable solution for conflict-torn Ethiopia at the moment and what could be done to achieve it? What should be the role of the international community to end the conflict? 

I don't believe that a solution can be found until both sides to the conflict realize that continuing the military campaigns is detrimental to both of their “causes.” There cannot be a military solution to this conflict, partial or total. Neither side will accept a total military defeat by the other. There has to be political talks and negotiation in a real sense. It is very clear that both sides are committed to war at this stage. Despite real progress made by former President Obasanjo over recent weeks, this still seems to be the case. 

I believe that the first step that needs to be taken is an agreement to a ceasefire without any preconditions. Both sides have outlined conditions previously but each side always includes at least one condition completely off the table for the other.   

I also think the African Union path has the most potential at this point. PM Abiy had been very vocal against any interference but does seem to have responded a bit more positively to recent efforts.  I think the broader international community must provide support here and in the coming years. There will need to be some serious national reconciliation, capacity building, and reconstruction in the coming years to keep Ethiopia together. All Ethiopians must believe they have a stake in the country’s future in order for it to survive.  

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The Bell is edited by Jaclyn Victor, Jason Kreutz, Shweta Menon and Phaedra de Saint-Rome of the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University.