Is “influence” foreign interference?

The latest election in Bangladesh reveals how the country, once considered the “poor neighbour” of India, is now a prominent battleground for our geopolitical environment.

By: Raihana Sayeeda Kamal

Three months ago, Bangladesh held its twelfth national elections, but the outcome was predetermined. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina returned to power with a low turnover of voters in a largely boycotted election.  This makes her the longest serving Prime Minister of Bangladesh, with five terms in total. The polls were hardly a domestic issue for Bangladesh. Instead, they took the world’s stage and became a testing ground for exerting power by global superpowers, particularly the US, EU, China, Russia and India. 

Not long ago, Bangladesh was referred to as a “poor neighboring country of India.” A country that could not feed its people on its own. A country that relied on foreign aid for survival. 

Within just a few decades, Bangladesh has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies in the world, ready to graduate from the Least Developed Country status in 2026. This economic transformation is thanks to its apparel sector, which ranks second in the world, behind only China. Bangladesh’s economic growth of seven per cent GDP and geographical location in the Indo-Pacific have drawn the attention of major competitive powers in the region. 

The Indo-Pacific is increasingly becoming a hub of commerce. Bangladesh’s position as a gateway between South Asia and Southeast Asia creates the potential for the country to become a communication hub between the large two regions. Bangladesh has access to the Bay of Benegal, where a significant amount of the world's commodities and energy are transported. The country is also located closely to the confluence of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, giving Bangladesh the opportunity to access important shipping routes for energy transportation from the Middle East and Africa. Bangladesh’s position also gives sea access to its landlocked neighbouring countries such as northeastern India, Nepal, Bhutan and China.

As energy and food scarcity increases globally, Bangladesh can play a vital role in global trade and commerce. As a result, power-seeking countries hold a distinct geopolitical and economic interest in Bangladesh as they seek to exert influence in the region. 

Since U.S. President Biden took office in 2021, there were growing concerns in the US about declining democracy in Bangladesh. Washington repeatedly put pressure on Dhaka to hold a free, fair, and participatory election. The US imposed sanctions on select members of Bangladesh’s elite force Rapid Actions Battalion (RAB) over alleged “violation of human rights” of the opposition party leaders in 2021 and on select individuals accused of “undermining the democratic process of elections.”  

Biden also did not invite Bangladesh to the Democratic Summit 2023, while he invited Pakistan, which ranks lower than Bangladesh in major democracy indices. This “uneven treatment” raised concerns of fair play. 

However, just a month after the election, the U.S. seemed to back off from its “democracy first” policy towards Bangladesh. On February 5, Biden wrote to Prime Minister Hasina and expressed his interest in starting a “new chapter” with Bangladesh. He expressed his desire to continue working with Bangladesh on regional and global security, and committed to supporting Bangladesh’s ambitious economic goals and partnering with Bangladesh on the U.S.’s Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS). 

Bangladesh has become a centerpiece of the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy since 2021.  Likely out of concern for China’s and Bangladesh’s close ties, and as the IPS seeks to limit China’s increasing influence in the region, the US offered Bangladesh support to modernize its defense capabilities. The offer arrived amidst China’s growing exports of weapons to Bangladesh and partnership to modernize the country’s defenses. Between 2015 and 2019, China accounted for 74% of Bangladesh’s arms imports. 

While the US was changing its foreign policy stance, China has taken the opportunity to grow its footprint in the Indo-Pacific through Bangladesh and has become its largest investment partner. Between 2016 and 2022, China invested US $26 billion in infrastructure, and information, communication and technology (ICT) projects in Bangladesh. 

In 2016, Bangladesh joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Through Bangladesh, China expanded its presence in the Bay of Bengal by investing in a US $1.2 billion submarine base named Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh’s Southwestern region Cox’s Bazar on the mouth of the Bay. 

India and Bangladesh have also recently strengthened ties. Bangladesh is  India’s largest exporting partner and it plays a crucial role in India’s strategic plans for the Indo-Pacific. Aligning with India’s vision of connecting South Asia to Southeast Asia, Prime Minister Hasina has also revived  connectivity with India via rail, roads and cargo. 

Global attention to Bangladesh’s elections and policy shifts of global superpowers towards Bangladesh before and after the election once again highlight the country's importance in global geopolitics. Both the U.S. and China are economic partners of Bangladesh. On one hand, the U.S. is the largest export market for the Bangladesh apparel sector. On the other hand, China is Bangladesh’s largest investment partner and India is Bangladesh’s closest neighbour and the country’s largest exporting partner. 

Bangladesh is now at a crossroads among three major power-hunting countries – the US, China and India – all of whom want to exert their influence in the Indo-Pacific through Bangladesh. Now, Bangladesh must balance complex and competing priorities in its relationships with all countries and for keeping peace and stability in the country and the region while safeguarding its economy. 

Bangladesh can pursue national stability in the face of competing geopolitical interests by strengthening both its democratic institutions and economic opportunities with global partners. Specifically, Bangladesh can:

• Ensure an all-party consensus-based election to enable free, fair, credible, inclusive and participatory democratic exercises. 

• Uphold its non-aligned principle of foreign policy: “Friendship with all, enmity with none.”

• Diversify the economy rather than depending only on the garment industry and attracting investments and modernizing other growing industries including pharmaceuticals, energy and electronics.

• Explore alternative trade partners and improve bilateral relationships with other existing buyers beyond the U.S. 

• Improve bi-lateral relationships with top alternative foreign direct investment (FDI) providers such as Japan, European Union, United Arab Emirates, Singapore and South Korea.

The author is an MPP candidate at Max Bell School of Public Policy and a Bangladeshi journalist and development sector professional. Before joining McGill University, she worked on the Women's Economic Empowerment and Digital Financial Services project, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, at BRAC Institute of Governance and Development, Dhaka.