Issue 31: New Brunswick's road back to "normal"

Striking the right the balance between openness and lockdown is more alchemy than algebra, but in Canada, at least, New Brunswick is leading the way

Policy for Pandemics is produced and edited by Andrew Potter and co-edited by Charlotte Reboul and Paisley Sim. Today’s briefing is by Ian Peach (IP), an expert on intergovernmental relations who is an instructor at the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University.

(New Brunswick’s chief medical officer of health Dr. Jennifer Russell)

AS THE WEEKS OF LIMITATIONS on our normal daily lives that were imposed to battle COVID-19 stretch on and as, in some provinces at least, the coronavirus “curve” seems to have been “flattened”, governments are beginning to think about how to safely ease the restrictions on people, businesses, and other institutions. After all, the sustainability of such restrictions depends on a combination of what the science (which itself is subject to uncertainty and conflicting evidence) tells us is safe and what we, as citizens, are prepared to accept; this is more alchemy than algebra.

New Brunswick, where I live, has performed the best per capita of any province in containing the COVID-19 outbreak. The headline of a story for CBC New Brunswick may sum up why New Brunswick has done so well: demographics (ours is a relatively rural province with no big, densely populated cities), distancing (a combination of good public health policies and rules and the willingness of New Brunswickers to abide by the rules), and dumb luck. The province has been under a state of emergency since March 19 and the Education minister closed all schools in the province on April 2. As of May 2, New Brunswick had gone 14 days with no new cases. Of the total of 118 cases, every single one was listed as recovered.

With this success as the backdrop, people were, naturally enough, asking when the provincial government would start easing restrictions. On April 24, Premier Higgs announced a plan to gradually ease restrictions, starting immediately, which made New Brunswick the first province in the country to begin opening up. If things go as hoped, it would make the province an object lesson for other provincial governments on how to ease restrictions safely, rather than how not to do it.

The plan has four steps, culminating in a return to “normal”, which, under New Brunswick’s plan, will be once a vaccine is developed or we can be confident that the population has established a “herd immunity”. (An infographic of the easing process is available here)

Probably the most important policy change in step one was allowing two households to associate closely in what is known as a two-household “bubble.” The rule is that only two households can associate with one another and the choice has to be both mutual and permanent; once a choice is made and acted upon, it cannot be changed. On the other hand, some requirements will become more strict, such as a requirement, rather than a recommendation, to wear masks in public in phase two of the easing. There will also be even stricter interprovincial border controls (though it is possible Prince Edward Island will be exempted from this, as it also has very low rates of infection).

While the time frame for the move from the first stage, which began April 24, to the second stage is targeted for between two and four weeks, the triggers for moving from one stage to the next will be substantive. If the disease curve remains flat in the new stage, we can move to the next stage of the plan. On the other hand, if there is a significant acceleration of the disease curve, we will move back to the previous stage. Finally, if we see three unlinked cases in the province in any six-day period, we will move right back to full lockdown, to where we were before April 24.

In the aftermath of this announcement, Premier Blaine Higgs and the Chief Medical Officer of Health for the province, Dr. Jennifer Russell, have become in some ways “Admonishers-in-Chief”. Higgs reminded people that easing restrictions to allow for two-household bubbles was “not a free-for-all” and that neighbourhood and multi-family gatherings are still not allowed. For her part, Dr. Russell has reminded us that, as long as our borders are open even to just essential travel, we remain at risk of seeing a second wave. She also reminded New Brunswickers that easing restrictions is not a race: “There is no prize for being the first at getting everything re-opened. Success is about re-opening things at the right time and doing it safely.”

The overall message is that public health and safety in the midst of a pandemic is the absolute priority. Our progress in easing restrictions on New Brunswick society may be relatively straightforward or it may be a long and winding road. Which road we take depends entirely on how well we do at keeping the disease curve flat. In any scenario, though, it will be months before the province returns to anything we could describe as “normal.” As Dr. Russell said, New Brunswickers led in the initial response to COVID-19 in Canada and we will lead in the recovery phase, but we will take whatever time it takes to do things right. That is good advice for all of us, governments and citizens alike. (IP)

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