The Secret to Winning an Election

Premier Kinew made history last fall as Manitoba’s first Anishinaabe leader – read an insider’s perspective on how this win was made possible.

By Gagan Gill, Jibril Hussein, and Soomin Han

In October 2023, the Orange wave swept the province of Manitoba.  Wab Kinew, 41, led the New Democratic Party (NDP) to victory, bringing in one of the most diverse cabinets in the province’s history. Of the 34 elected members of cabinet, 20 are Indigenous or people of colour, and 14 are women or gender-diverse. 

“We can do amazing things when we stand together as one province, stand together as one people, and there is no challenge that we cannot meet when we unite as one Manitoba,” Kinew said in his October victory speech. 

As Manitoba's first Anishinaabe premier, Kinew's historic election underscores the province’s long journey toward representation. His victory comes a century after the passing  of Métis leader Louis Riel, the founding father of Manitoba and the province's first premier.  

To delve into Kinew’s political ascent and the Manitoba NDP's success, we interviewed campaign strategists Brian Topp and Cheryl Oates, who worked with Kinew during his 2023 provincial election. Topp served as the Chief of Staff to Alberta Premier Rachel Notley before working as the campaign director in Manitoba. Oates was the former Executive Director of Communication and Planning to Rachel Notley and supported Kinew with debate prep. 

Centering healthcare in the policy agenda

“Vote for better health care” was the leading slogan for the campaign and the central concern for Manitoba voters.  

Right before the pandemic, Progressive Conservative leadership closed half of Winnipeg’s ERs and cut healthcare spending by nearly $80 million. The NDP’s 2023 provincial campaign  promised to spend $500 million over four years and build three new ERs to help bolster the province’s healthcare system. 

In contrast to preceding elections, the province was in the midst of a post-COVID-19 recovery, with healthcare taking precedence for voters. To Oates and the NDP campaign team, this was a healthcare election, and nothing would get them off course . They stated their policy positions early, took to the airwaves with non-stop announcements, and stayed on-message even when their opponents attempted to sow doubt in their ability to lead the province.

Topp also emphasized the role of positioning healthcare reform as a primary campaign issue for the NDP. He detailed the importance of gaining insights from individuals on the front lines, such as doctors, nurses, and healthcare practitioners. 

Lessons learned from the Alberta NDP

The Manitoba NDP certainly took a few lessons from the May 2023 Alberta election. The Alberta NDP decided to focus on policy, not personality. For the Manitoba elections, Oates had one goal in mind when prepping Premier Kinew for the debate stage: be likable. 

Likability is one of the many reasons politicians go through ‘mini makeovers’, such as Pierre Poilievre when he dropped his glasses and started using a less combative tone. Premier Kinew remained calm during his debates and spoke directly to Manitobans when he explained how he wanted to make a difference in their lives. Oates states that in an ever-changing media environment where people are not tuning into debates, how you present yourself is often more important than what you say.

While likability is important, it is also essential to get ahead of any potential issues and inoculate the messaging on key policy topics before your opponents do. Premier Kinew took a chance with this bold strategy of getting ahead of his checkered past because it was clear that the Conservatives would continue to talk about it. 

“My political opponents want you to think that I’m running from my past,” Mr. Kinew said during his speech at the Canadian Mennonite University. “But actually, my past is the reason I am running.”

During the election, the PCs were running advertisements critical of Premier Kinew’s troubles with the legal system during his challenges with addiction, including an assault on a taxi driver, as well as domestic violence charges which were stayed. Confronting his personal history put an end to the opposing PC's incessant dog-whistling around crime and coded language around race. 

When dealing with negative messaging against Premier Kinew and his background, maintaining a positive campaign strategy was central to the party's success. 

“Appeal for a Manitoba in which you don’t win elections by running against people's racial background and instead finding a common humanity in citizens,” Topp stated during our podcast interview. 

The Winning Formula 

For Premier Kinew and his team, there were two key components of the strategy behind the NDP win: good policy and a likeable leader. As other provinces, and perhaps even the federal government according to some political operatives, head to the polls this year, campaign strategists should be reminded of what it takes to win an election and make history – even in the presence of adversity.

If you enjoyed this article, please check out the latest episode by The Bellwether podcast, hosted by Jibril Hussein and Soomin Han, and produced by Gagan Gill and Sean Celi.