The West must respond coherently to Russian aggression

What transpires next between Russia and Ukraine is anyone’s guess, but the West must stand united in making an attack on Ukraine a costly endeavor for Russia.

Jason Kreutz is a graduate student at McGill University’s Max Bell School of Public Policy. He is the Vice-President (Academic) of the Public Policy Association of Graduate Students and an editor at The Bell. Jason’s interests include economics, health, and foreign policy. His views and opinions are his own and may or may not reflect his proud Albertan upbringing.

Naveen Kanwadia is presently pursuing a Master of Public Policy at McGill University’s Max Bell School of Public Policy. He is a TMT lawyer who in his past life was working with the Public Policy and Regulatory Affairs team at The Walt Disney Co. In his free time, he can be found cooking mean mutton curry and dabbling in geopolitics, geo-strategy, and technology and media policy. He is also the Vice-President (Communications) of the Public Policy Association of Graduate Students. His views and opinions remain untainted by his formal education.

Write us at newsletterthebell@gmail.com.

Source: The Telegraph

Conflict seems imminent with approximately 100,000 Russian military personnel on the precipice of Ukraine's borders, but Vladimir Putin’s intentions remain elusive. Perhaps a full-scale invasion of Ukraine is in the cards, with the end goal of capturing Kyiv and ultimately overthrowing the Ukrainian government. Or maybe Putin seeks war on a smaller scale with the goal of “rescuing” separatists in the Donbas region of Ukraine while simultaneously whittling down Ukraine’s military, infrastructure, and economy. The impetus for an invasion could also be territorial – Russia could gain a land route to Crimea, which they annexed in 2014. Maybe Putin merely seeks to extract concessions from Ukraine and other allied nations. 

This ambiguity complicates the West’s ability to adequately respond to the mounting threat of a Russian assault. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, in spite of its persistent attempts to join the alliance. This provides NATO with greater flexibility should a Russian invasion be launched on Ukraine since it ultimately means that the alliance is under no formal obligation to defend Ukraine. Failing to respond to the Russian threat, however, would have drastic, far-reaching consequences for all parties involved.

Given that Russia possesses a first-mover advantage, and Ukraine does not have NATO membership, it may appear that the odds are stacked against Ukraine. Beyond the loss of life and the other horrific implications that come with warfare, Russia also stands to lose much through this potential conflict. Non-Russian aligned nations in the vicinity of Ukraine would likely bolster their defensive capabilities, or even seek NATO membership themselves. NATO itself would likely see a large incentive to increase defensive capabilities on its eastern front. Russian living conditions, which have already been regressing for years, would worsen. Russia has also been threatened with severe sanctions, although the details surrounding these remain sparse. The economic ramifications of these sanctions would be severe, yet survivable given the $600 billion in reserves possessed by Russia’s central bank.  

Likewise, the repercussions for Ukraine and the West don’t stop at the normal perils of war. Europe is heavily reliant upon Russia to meet its energy needs. Exports like oil and wheat would see their prices skyrocket should war break out. Some have even posited that China also stands to benefit from Russian aggression toward Ukraine. Such a move would test the resolve of President Biden and the NATO alliance. A weak response from the West toward Russian aggression may signal to President Xi that an attack on Taiwan, a democratic self-ruled country that the Chinese Communist Party views as its own, would go largely unchallenged. Chinese scholars have disputed the notion that the CCP would condone an attack on Ukraine, much less draw parallels between this and a potential invasion of Taiwan. Nevertheless, China and Russia both perceive a changing world order characterized by Western disarray and strife. While an invasion of Ukraine is certainly a gamble on the part of President Putin, it presents more than just an opportunity for Russia to make strategic gains in Europe; it is an opportunity to further divide the West. The Western-led NATO alliance simply cannot afford to allow a Russian invasion to go ahead without significant repercussions.

Following the shameful debacle that was the West’s exit from Afghanistan, disarray amongst NATO members regarding how to respond to the Russian threat does not bode well. A coherent multilateral response on the part of the West is required. At a minimum, foreign aid for Ukraine and a steadfast commitment to impose harsh sanctions on Russia are needed – even if it means Russia turns the tap off on its pipelines to Europe. NATO members should look to bolster their own defenses, and the alliance should be welcoming of new member states, such as Finland. Russia has demanded from NATO that Ukraine be barred from entering the alliance, most likely because any sort of Russian invasion on a NATO member is simply unviable. This only strengthens the case for increasing NATO’s membership. Simultaneously, diplomatic talks between the West and Russian officials should continue in hopes of reaching a peaceful de-escalation. Of course, if a full-scale assault happens, retaliation with an attack on Russia itself is inadvisable and would have catastrophic consequences. The West, however, should not shy away from providing financial, military, and intelligence support to Ukraine.

A strong and united front in the face of a belligerent Russia would ultimately signal to the world that the West has renewed its resolve. This would perhaps be enough to make Putin think twice.

This article is the first of a two-part series on Russia, Ukraine, and NATO. The second piece will be released next week and will address Putin’s intentions.

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The Bell is edited by Jaclyn Victor, Jason Kreutz, Shweta Menon and Phaedra de Saint-Rome of the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University.