The West must thwart Putin’s intentions - he’s not hiding them anyways!
What transpires next between Russia, Ukraine and the West is still a question baffling the international community. It would be a travesty if Putin is able to overturn the breakup of the Soviet Union.
Naveen Kanwadia is presently pursuing a Master of Public Policy at McGill University’s Max Bell School of Public Policy. He is a TMT lawyer who in his past life was working with the Public Policy and Regulatory Affairs team at The Walt Disney Co. In his free time, he can be found dabbling in geopolitics, geo-strategy, and technology and media policy. He is also the Vice-President (Communications) of the Public Policy Association of Graduate Students.
Jason Kreutz is a graduate student at McGill University’s Max Bell School of Public Policy. He is the Vice-President (Academic) of the Public Policy Association of Graduate Students and an editor at The Bell. Jason’s interests include economics, health policy, and foreign policy. His views and opinions are his own and may or may not reflect his proud Albertan upbringing.
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Putin is, where Putin was
ON THE EVE of the fall of the Berlin Wall when the West was celebrating the uncanny realization of President Reagan’s prophetic call to his Soviet counterparts to “tear down this wall”, a young intelligence official named Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin was witnessing this mayhem just a few kilometres away in East Berlin. This event marked the beginning of the end of his beloved country, which he later went on to term “the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century”. It had a profound impact on his worldview which is reflected in the broader strategic agenda that his administration pursues, i.e., to recreate the sphere of influence that the USSR once commanded.
Will Mother Russia rise again?
The re-awakening of the mythical Matushka Rossiya to reassert control over its lesser children (AKA Commonwealth of Independent States) is imminent if you ask members of Putin’s United Russia Party. These loyalists all praise their beloved “Volodya” and credit him for overcoming the uncertainty and shame of the Yeltsin years and keeping Chechnya and Dagestan in the fold.
The core ideological pillar informing Putin’s ethno-nationalistic stance is the concern over the fate of millions of ethnic Russians stuck in the former Soviet Republics, which continues to inform popular Russian psyche to this day. These ideological frontiers of the Russian state fall far beyond its present territorial borders and create a geo-strategic imperative for the Kremlin to ensure that the West is kept from getting too close.
“Where the Russian flag was raised once, it should never be taken down”
These words were uttered by Emperor Nicholas I in 1850 in the context of the remote island of Sakhalin, where a Russian explorer had founded a settlement. Strangely, similar themes were evoked by President Putin in March, 2014 while ‘welcoming’ Crimea back in the Russian Federation, when he said: “Crimea speaks of our shared history and pride…[and] culture, civilisation and human values that unite the peoples of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.”
Grand civilisational lingo notwithstanding, the risk of expelling of the Russian Navy’s Great Black Sea Fleet stationed at Sevastopol in Crimea post pro-democratic reforms in Ukraine was one of the main motivating factors informing Putin’s tactical choices, as was also the fact that 1.5 million out of 2.2 million Crimeans are ethnic Russians.
Russia’s strategic assets, most of which are a creation of the Soviet state, are spread far beyond its national borders and remain a primary consideration determining its actions in the region. This explains the Kremlin’s prompt action in providing military support to Kazakhstan during the recent protests. It should be noted that Kazakhstan houses Baikonaur Cosmodrome, which is Russia’s lifeline to outer space.
It would be safe to say that President Putin has a sharp eye on preserving, and in many cases modernizing and advancing, the vast assortment of strategic and tactical assets that the USSR left behind.
“A bear won’t ask for permission”
The above words were uttered by President Putin in 2014 at the Valdai Discussion Club in response to the Western criticism of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The intent was clearly to let the West know that Russia shall always stand tough and not shy away from risky maneuvers when it comes to protecting its perceived interests.
However, the resolve behind these words doesn’t end with the Kremlin's supposed national security concerns arising from the Maidan pro-democracy protests and the popular demand for Ukraine to become better integrated with the EU-led European trade system. Based on Putin’s interventionist actions since 2014, whether it be in Ukraine, Syria or more recently in Kazakhstan and Sahel, it becomes clear that Putin’s grand strategy is not merely to tactically preserve assets located in former Soviet Republics, rather, it is to regain the power and prestige that the former world power once commanded. These sentiments, albeit jokingly, were expressed by Putin himself, who in 2016 responded to a question by a 9 year old about the geographical limits of Russia stating that “Russia’s borders do not end anywhere”.
Thus, it would not be far-fetched to say that the former KGB sleuth would appreciate nothing more than the overturning of the break-up of the Soviet Union. However, he is enough of a strategist to realize that that dream can never be actualized in totality. That said, he also understands that those former republics of the Soviet Union that have not yet undone their Russian cultural identity like Belarus, Ukraine, and many Central Asian Republics (CARs) should either be tightly bound by the umbilical cords of security partnerships like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), economic and energy ties, or in worst case be annexed.
“It is the Soviet Union that runs against the tide of history”
US President Ronald Reagan proclaimed the above words in the context of placing the Soviet Union as an evil empire that runs counter to the relentless march of history towards democracy and freedom. Needless to emphasize, his words came true and we live in a world that was built in the aftermath of that prophecy. Yet, Russia has overcome the ignominious Yeltsin years and under Putin has been bolstered by its success in hacking Western democracies and finds solace in an alternative model of economic success like China. Moreover, it nonchalantly uses these tides to create a wave of global authoritarianism which risks creating global democratic recession.
However, the West must understand that the return of the USSR, in any shape or form, would be the greatest catastrophe of the 21st century, even if its fall was far from the biggest tragedy of the last century. In simple terms, an agreement on limiting the expansion of western alliance structures like NATO would be making a deal with the devil. We must refuse this offer.
The Bell is edited by Jaclyn Victor, Jason Kreutz, Shweta Menon and Phaedra de Saint-Rome of the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University.