What's next for Ghana's political duopoly?
Ghana's presidential elections reveal changing dynamics in the country — and a striking U.S. parallel
By Husein Pumaya Yakubu
Ghana’s democracy is pretty young, yet, within the African context, Ghana has emerged as a shining beacon for democracy, a model that many countries aspire to emulate. On December 7th, 2024, Ghana will hold its ninth general election under the Fourth Republic, marking another milestone in its democratic history. But this election is different. The stakes have never been higher, and the outcome, once relatively predictable, is now shrouded in uncertainty. As Ghana charts its political future, its dynamics reveal surprising parallels to the United States, adding another layer of intrigue to the race.
Ghana’s path to democracy has been anything but smooth. Political instability, starting with the 1966 coup that ousted Dr. Kwame Nkrumah, plagued the early decades of independence. The adoption of the 1992 Constitution brought a semblance of order, ushering in a Fourth Republic characterized by regular elections and peaceful transfers of power. However, Ghanaians have grown increasingly disillusioned with their leaders, who often promise sweeping reforms but deliver limited results. This dissatisfaction has created a pattern where voters find themselves choosing between a rock and a hard place every four years, often oscillating between the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC). Yet, 2024 could mark a turning point. With new political actors and shifting allegiances, this election may break Ghana’s familiar binary mould.
The United Nations Development Programme calls 2024 the most significant election year in human history. Ghana proudly joins this global wave, preparing for its own pivotal election. The ruling NPP, led by incumbent Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, faces significant internal and external challenges. Historically, the NPP has prided itself on unity, but last year’s primary elections fractured the party. Alan Kyerematen, a seasoned politician and former trade minister, left the party after losing the primaries to Bawumia, forming his own party, aptly named the “Movement for Change.” Kyerematen’s defection threatens to siphon off a portion of the NPP’s traditional support base.
Adding to the political intrigue is the meteoric rise of Nana Kwame Bediako, popularly known as “Cheddar.” Representing the wave of youthful political participation sweeping across the globe, Cheddar has captured the imagination of Ghana’s youth. His unconventional campaign, marked by creativity and disruption, has resonated with young voters who are disenchanted with the status quo. Cheddar’s candidacy challenges the dominance of the NPP and NDC, injecting a much-needed dose of unpredictability into the election.
Despite these new players, Ghana’s elections often boil down to a choice between the two major parties. The NPP and NDC have dominated the political landscape since the Fourth Republic’s inception, alternating power in predictable eight-year cycles. But this year, the incumbent NPP faces the formidable task of defending its record amid widespread dissatisfaction.
The Vice President and chair of Ghana’s Economic Management Team, Dr. Bawumia, was once hailed as a technocratic saviour, armed with a PhD in economics and a reputation for his financial acumen. However, under his watch, Ghana has experienced its worst economic crisis in decades, marked by soaring inflation, a depreciating currency, and ballooning unemployment.
Bawumia’s attempt to distance himself from his government’s failures has been met with skepticism. He argues that his role as vice president limited his influence, likening himself to a “backup driver” who could only implement policies at the president’s discretion. This defence, however, has done little to assuage public concerns about his leadership capabilities. Dr. Bawumia’s candidacy mirrors Kamala Harris’s position in the Biden administration — a vice president tasked with inheriting the political fallout of an administration’s shortcomings. Like Harris, Bawumia must navigate public doubts about his role in governance while promising transformative leadership.
On the opposing side stands John Dramani Mahama, the NDC’s flagbearer and a former president aiming to reclaim power. Mahama’s tenure from 2012 to 2016 was marred by corruption scandals, economic mismanagement, and severe hardships for industries and workers. However, much like Donald Trump’s re-election bid in the United States, Mahama’s comeback strategy leans on his experience in office, presenting himself as someone who knows what it takes to lead and deliver on promises. His campaign emphasizes undoing the perceived damage caused by the incumbent government. To many disillusioned voters, however, he may simply represent the lesser evil.
Mahama’s re-election bid echoes Trump’s return to the campaign trail. Both candidates represent a paradoxical choice for voters: a return to familiar faces and policies that were once rejected. Trump’s controversial presidency and Mahama’s flawed tenure both illustrate how voters often oscillate between perceived evils when faced with limited alternatives.
As Ghanaians get ready to cast their votes on Saturday, the significance of the moment is not lost on anyone. The country faces an array of challenges, from economic instability to threats against democratic institutions. Whether voters will embrace new voices like Cheddar’s or revert to the familiar dichotomy of NPP vs. NDC remains to be seen.
What is evident, however, is that Ghana’s 2024 election marks a pivotal moment in the nation's history. It offers a chance to redefine Ghana’s political trajectory, breaking free from the cycle of overpromising and under-delivering. In the end, this election is more than a contest of personalities or parties—it is a test of Ghana’s democratic maturity. Will the electorate choose innovation and change, or will it cling to the comfort of the status quo?
Husein Pumaya Yakubu is an MPP Candidate at the Max Bell School of Public Policy and a Deputy Editor at The Bell. With a strong background in Land Management and over five years of professional experience in land administration and government, Pumaya has played a key role in revising Ghana's National Land Policy and contributing to drafting the Regulations for the Land Act of Ghana. Before joining Max Bell, he led the secretariat of the Ghana Land Sector Multi Stakeholder Platform, where he fostered dialogue between the government and customary stakeholders in Ghana's land sector. At Max Bell, Pumaya aims to hone his policy making and analysis skills further, positioning himself to promote resource equality and enhance public sector management in Africa and beyond.