World’s youngest democracy at the ballot box

South Sudan will not be ready for their first national elections this December, but it is critical that they happen anyway.

Photo: View of Juba, capital of South Sudan, from Jebel Mountain. Taken by Author. 

Written by: Rebecca Kresta

Rewind to January 2022, as I walked down the main road of Bentiu town in South Sudan, I asked my colleague, “What is the population of Bentiu?” My former colleague at Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), who was an ex-data collector for the government of South Sudan, replied calmly, “No one really knows, the World Food Program might have the best estimate based on food distribution lists.”

Hiding my dismay, I thought back to my briefing documents which said that elections were scheduled for 2022. It’s tough to hold elections when you don’t know the population. 

Throughout that year, many areas of South Sudan were completely cut off because of record flooding. Roads were impassable, making movement of people and delivery of goods incredibly difficult. It took me eight hours to canoe to villages just 15 kilometres north of our base. It’s tough to vote if you can’t get to a polling station. 

In spring 2022, ongoing power struggles led to extreme violence against civilians in the area where I was working. Parties loyal to the two factions which had fought in the civil war battled for territory and civilians were caught in the middle. More than 20,000 people were displaced and over 200 women and girls reported sexual or gender-based violence. It’s impossible to hold elections if violence is rampant. 

South Sudan is the world’s youngest country, after gaining independence from Sudan in 2011. It has yet to host its first national elections. Voting was initially scheduled for 2015, but the threat of a coup delayed the vote. This was followed by a five-year civil war which killed 400,000 people and saw approximately 30 per cent of the population flee as refugees, which is clearly no condition to hold elections. 

In 2018, a peace deal was signed which divided power between the two sides of the conflict and set a course for elections in 2022. Because of slow progress on the conditions laid out in the peace agreement, the elections were once again delayed to December 2024.  

2024 arrived a few days ago, and South Sudan is yet again scheduled to hold elections this December, but the situation looks precarious. The UN Special Representative on South Sudan, Nicolas Haysom, reported in September that there were still critical criteria that needed to be met to ensure the country is prepared to host elections. Foundational things like the type of the election, voter registration issues, delineating constituencies, and plans for management of electoral disputes have not yet been laid out by the government. 

While these are major gaps, they can be resolved before December if there is sufficient political will. If there is sufficient will, election employees can be hired, registration systems can be devised, and decisions about the nature of the government can be finalized. Salva Kiir, the current president, committed to no more delays in elections.

He has also declared that he will run for re-election, so there is an incentive to keep his promise. What’s more, he would be risking his own political legitimacy should the elections not go forward. It is key that the political will come from both parties. The first Vice President, Riek Machar, who leads the opposition must also commit to moving forward on the decisions which will make the elections possible. 

Even if there is sufficient political will, it is unlikely that the election will be free or fair. There has not yet been a national census, so it would be easy to slip in false votes. It will be difficult for citizens to vote at organized polling stations or based on careful consideration of clearly laid out platforms. The election commission was only appointed in November. If the elections do happen, it is highly probable that Salva Kiir will be re-elected. 

But still, I hope that the election will happen. Democracy is something that must be built. Elections are just one small element, but preparing for this event will force progress on several other important institutions. Maybe progress could be made on building the constitution. Perhaps a census could be completed. Aiming for tremendous goals often creates the inertia needed to remove barriers for smaller milestones. 

Beyond the institutions or the government, the citizens of South Sudan, who for decades have suffered because of power struggles between a few powerful men, deserve the opportunity to participate in their government. They are a resilient, proud people. It may be hard, but in a country where women in labour will travel 30 kilometres in canoe to get to a hospital, I think given the chance people will find a way to get to the polls. 

Logistical challenges can be overcome, but a critical consideration is whether the elections can happen with minimal violence.  In South Sudan, the political parties are roughly split along ethnic lines. The Nuer support the party of the Vice-President, the SPLM-IO, and the Dinka support the President as leader of the SPLM.

This division is what led to the outbreak of the civil war and to the regional violence I witnessed in 2022. The elections could spark decades old divisions and reminders of recent atrocities. Traditional leaders, military leaders, and politicians must all commit to creating an atmosphere and expectation that the elections will happen peacefully. 

If South Sudan could hold elections this year with minimal violence and take a first step towards democracy, that would be a victory. 

Note from author to readers:

Like all countries, the political evolution and nuances of South Sudan are much more complex than I can capture in 800 words. My goal with this piece is to inspire curiosity. If you want to learn more about the history of this young country and the elements that will factor into this election, Peter Martell’s book, First Raise a Flag, is an excellent starting point. 

Rebecca Kresta was born and raised in Edmonton. She received her BSC in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Alberta and has since moved to Quebec where she worked in the aviation industry before taking on the role of Logistics Team Leader working for Doctors Without Borders in DRC and South Sudan. She is passionate about the role of infrastructure in development and a frequent contributor to The Bell.