Issue 07: Spotlight on Germany
Thanks to a mix of demographic luck and solid leadership, Germany's pandemic response is proving effective, even as it prepares for a ‘third wave’ coming its way
The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged global policy makers in ways unheard of in most of our lifetimes. This newsletter provides short, accessible briefings on as many of the relevant policy challenges as possible. Today’s briefing is written by Sebastian Muermann (SM), a graduate student at the Max Bell School of Public Policy who is riding out the pandemic in Montreal.
Early to Flatten the Curve; Now Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop
As coronavirus deaths multiply across Europe, and government measures to control its spread become increasingly drastic, one country has deviated from the norm and is demonstrating a very different approach to crisis management.
“Calm, but stern” is the clichéd term often used to describe German values and attitudes. But it is this approach that is having a major effect in halting the spread of COVID-19. Having been hit with a very early sense of the severity of coronavirus and with Europe’s longest serving leader at the helm, Germany grasped the enormous potential danger of the virus early on.
In spite of having the fifth most infections in the world (62,095 as of March 29th), Germany currently only has 525 deaths, and a mortality rate of 0.8%. By contrast, at the virus’s European epicentre in Italy, the fatality rate hovers at a shocking 9.5%.
Germany has experienced two distinct waves of infection:
Outbreak one infected about 14 people in Bavaria in late January. It was largely identified, isolated, and treated nearly 50 days ago. Due to the enforcement of strict sanitary and isolation practices, no deaths or further infections resulted from that initial cluster.
Outbreak two began 30 days ago, at the end of February, in my home province of North Rhine-Westphalia. It spiked at 6,000 cases in the region. Increased transmission was likely caused by young tourists returning from Italy, and not a direct transfer from Asia. The first recorded death in Germany was on March 12th, 2020, matching many other countries with far fewer infections.
Germany’s comparatively low death rate is a function of both demographics and the strategies used to isolate and control the spread to the most vulnerable populations. Signs are emerging that the exponential upwards curve in new coronavirus infections in Germany is flattening off.
So what made Germany different?
First, health agency measures were taken early on at the Bundeslȁnder level to restrict visitation at senior’s homes and residences for the elderly. Cases were professionally tracked by health inspectors. Funding was also concurrently granted, leading to successful (and unsuccessful) procurement initiatives and advances in vaccine research, such as the Tübingen-based biopharmaceutical company CureVac, which President Donald Trump controversially attempted to purchase for exclusive American use.
A second factor is Germany’s natural demography, and intergenerational ties within the country. In contrast to Italy, few young adults live with their parents, and a there is a higher frequency of geographically separate familial clusters. This form of distancing has meant that the spread of the virus is primarily found among young people. In Germany, 82% of those who’ve tested positive are under 60. By contrast, in Italy, 74% of cases are people over 50. The contrast with Italy is especially surprising because the two countries have the highest percentage of citizens aged 65 or over in Europe.
The coordinated policy intervention focus has been to “break infection chains” as quickly as possible. In addition to targeting clusters and increasing public knowledge, vans drive around neighbourhoods blasting loudspeaker PSAs about “Ausgangsbeschränkung” (exit restrictions) and have aided in early public awareness.
Crucially, Germany’s response has been successful to date because they have been testing even people with milder symptoms relatively early on. The total number of confirmed cases may give a more accurate picture of the virus’s spread than in other countries.
In a nationally televised broadcast on March 18th, outgoing chancellor Angela Merkel displayed her crisis management skills. As one reporter described it: “What gave her address its force was her tone, which was direct, honest, and searingly empathic. She laid bare not just the test we all face but also the solace that leadership can provide. Without accusations, boasts, hedges, obfuscations, dubious claims, or apocalyptic metaphors she did what a leader is supposed to do: explain the gravity of the situation and promise that the government’s help would flow to everyone who needed it.” Merkel’s approval ratings have continued to soar since the public broadcast, in contrast to many other leaders.
The Chancellor is now in a similar position as the Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, having to fully self-quarantine following an exposure to a physician who tested positive for COVID-19. Prior to her isolation, a popular photo circulated of her buying groceries at her local supermarket.
During the March 18 speech, Merkel made no specific announcements and did not call for nationwide curfews or additional closures. She instead used her address to set the national tone of the response and highlight the importance of even-handed central leadership. Subsequent announcements from cabinet ministers have laid out the federal responses to the outbreak:
An economic package worth up to 750 billion euros ($808 billion CAD) to mitigate the damage to Germany markets and the entire Eurozone. This would be the first time Berlin has taken on public debt since 2013.
A supplementary budget that will underline Finance Minister Olaf Scholz’s determination to use "all we have" to reduce the impact of coronavirus. A total of 156 billion euros ($243 billion CAD) will be financed with new state borrowing.
On social policy, states including Bavaria, Saarland and Saxony have announced stricter curfews. Citizens may only leave the house for necessary tasks. Family Minister Franziska Giffey announced additional requests to federal states to ensure enough spaces in community and women’s shelters. This is based on the recommendation of the Confederation of German Police Detectives, who expect an increase in domestic violence cases while quarantine measures are in place. Measures are also being taken to support the homeless in German cities.
On health, Germany currently has an excess capacity for treating positive cases of Coronavirus. To alleviate overwhelmed neighbours to the south, and to practice treatment in highly secure facilities, Germany is treating patients transferred from overloaded French and Italian hospitals.
The number of hospital beds will be doubled before the end of March, and a strategy to support health care workers is in development.
(SM)
Related readings
Autocrats and wannabe dictators are using the pandemic to grab power
A good piece from Der Spiegel that asks, what happens next?
Colorado abolished the death penalty.
Canada designated its first female ambassador to the US.
An Early Van Gogh was stolen in Germany.
The US and Russia to meet to discuss slumping global oil prices.
Barcelona’s soccer team agrees to 70% pay cut amid the pandemic.
Listen: Find any radio station, anywhere on the globe. Radio Garden, an extremely fun tool to explore
Watch: The history of Europe since 400 BC in under 12 minutes
This comedian’s Trump impression is so bang-on it’s frightening:
Policy for Pandemics is produced and edited by Andrew Potter and co-edited by Charlotte Reboul and Paisley Sim (bios here) If you have any feedback or would like to contribute to this newsletter, please send an email to andrew2.potter@mcgill.ca